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2yo Debutants In Maidens July Onwards


2yo debutants in maidens July onwards by David Renham

In this article I will be looking at the performance of 2yo debutants in 2yo maidens from July onwards. The data has been taken from the last 7 seasons.

Firstly it is interesting to compare the performance of 2yo maiden debutants from March to June with those from July onwards:

2yo maidens March-June – ALL debutants

Runs

Wins

Strike Rate

Profit

ROI

6368

495

7.8%

-£1655.26

-26%

 

2yo maidens July onwards – ALL debutants

 

Runs

Wins

Strike Rate

Profit

ROI

12411

682

5.5%

-£4980.12

-40.1%

 

As we can, 2yo maiden debutants have a much poorer record from July onwards. At first glance this may not make sense as you often hear the racing experts go on about the better 2 year olds being introduced later in the year. Surely better 2yos will do better on debut when looking at the bigger picture? However, what one needs to appreciate is that horses making their debut later in the season tend to race against horses that have run before – or at least the majority have run before. Experience counts for a lot in many 2yo maiden races. This happens less earlier in the year when a higher proportion of their ‘competitors’ are also making their debut. Thus, this helps to explain the difference in the strike rates and the returns.

 

It is interesting that certain trainers target different times of the year. Let us look at Richard Hannon for example:

 

Months

Runs

Wins

Strike Rate

Profit

ROI

March - June

376

53

14.1%

-£54.50

-14.5%

July onwards

327

20

6.1%

-£126.25

-38.6%

 

Clearly Hannon focuses on the sharper, early developing 2yo. His record from July onwards is very poor in comparison to his early season record. Indeed, take July out of the equation and he saddled just 8 winners from 184 runners (SR 4.3%) for a loss of £82.75 (ROI -45%) from August onwards.

 

Another trainer worth discussing briefly is Sir Michael Stoute. He has saddled just 25 debutants from March to June in the 7 seasons (just 2 winners). From July onwards he has saddled 355 debutants (55 winners). Stoute tends to focus on middle to longer distances with his 3yos so it makes sense that most of his 2yo debutants are the later developing types that are likely to tackle longer distances the following year.

 

Let us now focus back on all trainers from July onwards with their 2yo maiden debutants. I have included trainers who have saddled 30 or more debutants. Overall the results make fairly sorry reading:

 

Trainer

Runs

Wins

Strike Rate

Profit

ROI

S Bin-Suroor

213

43

20.2%

-£37.83

-17.8%

Sir M Stoute

355

54

15.2%

+£10.29

+2.9%

H Cecil

98

14

14.3%

-£9.42

-9.6%

A O'Brien

21

3

14.3%

-£11.43

-54.4%

M Johnston

413

58

14%

+£53.97

+13.1%

H Candy

73

9

12.3%

+£22.50

+30.8%

J Noseda

126

15

11.9%

+£23.54

+18.7%

J Gosden

308

34

11%

-£39.63

-12.9%

 D Simcock

48

5

10.4%

+£5.75

+12%

M Tregoning

137

12

8.8%

-£35.00

-25.5%

W Swinburn

80

7

8.8%

-£5.00

-6.3%

M Jarvis

218

19

8.7%

-£73.51

-33.7%

P Cole

129

11

8.5%

-£43.29

-33.6%

R Beckett

118

10

8.5%

+£18.50

+15.7%

M Wallace

59

5

8.5%

+£5.50

9.3%

B Meehan

251

21

8.4%

-£0.34

-0.1%

P Makin

49

4

8.2%

-£16.25

-33.2%

P Chapple-Hyam

127

10

7.9%

-£62.67

-49.3%

G Butler

116

9

7.8%

-£34.29

-29.6%

W Muir

79

6

7.6%

+£59.00

+74.7%

M Dods

40

3

7.5%

+£169.00

+422.5%

D Elsworth

95

7

7.4%

+£3.33

+3.5%

K Ryan

112

8

7.1%

-£58.50

-52.2%

J Fanshawe

114

8

7%

-£57.75

-50.7%

E O'Neill

72

5

6.9%

-£22.00

-30.6%

E Dunlop

255

17

6.7%

-£109.25

-42.8%

E Vaughan

45

3

6.7%

-£23.25

-51.7%

R Hollinshead

45

3

6.7%

+£49.00

+108.9%

B Hills

357

23

6.4%

-£145.12

-40.6%

L Cumani

110

7

6.4%

-£69.38

-63.1%

M Quinlan

48

3

6.3%

+£5.50

+11.5%

R Hannon

327

20

6.1%

-£126.25

-38.6%

S Kirk

117

7

6%

-£57.50

-49.1%

A Jarvis

50

3

6%

-£32.25

-64.5%

J Eustace

50

3

6%

-£12.00

-24.0%

M Botti

34

2

5.9%

-£6.00

-17.6%

J Dunlop

262

15

5.7%

-£107.93

-41.2%

R Johnson Houghton

35

2

5.7%

+£42.00

+120.0%

R Charlton

167

9

5.4%

-£83.08

-49.7%

M Bell

149

8

5.4%

-£102.30

-68.7%

C Cox

74

4

5.4%

-£33.00

-44.6%

Sir M Prescott

152

8

5.3%

-£99.75

-65.6%

M Channon

273

14

5.1%

-£167.12

-61.2%

R Guest

61

3

4.9%

+£12.50

+20.5%

R Fahey

109

5

4.6%

-£2.75

-2.5%

J Given

132

6

4.5%

-£16.00

-12.1%

A Balding

146

6

4.1%

-£59.50

-40.8%

J Osborne

130

5

3.8%

-£61.50

-47.3%

G L Moore

54

2

3.7%

+£18.50

+34.3%

B Smart

115

4

3.5%

-£95.12

-82.7%

Mrs A Perrett

204

7

3.4%

-£133.00

-65.2%

P D'arcy

30

1

3.3%

-£26.75

-89.2%

J Weymes

31

1

3.2%

+£3.00

+9.7%

C Wall

65

2

3.1%

-£33.00

-50.8%

S Williams

67

2

3%

-£49.00

-73.1%

J Quinn

68

2

2.9%

-£4.00

-5.9%

H Dunlop

34

1

2.9%

-£25.00

-73.5%

W Haggas

178

5

2.8%

-£78.67

-44.2%

H Morrison

113

3

2.7%

-£86.50

-76.5%

C Brittain

110

3

2.7%

-£50.00

-45.5%

K R Burke

74

2

2.7%

-£31.00

-41.9%

A King

37

1

2.7%

+£30.00

+81.1%

G Swinbank

39

1

2.6%

-£26.00

-66.7%

J Moore

40

1

2.5%

-£6.00

-15%

P Blockley

42

1

2.4%

-£8.00

-19%

B Palling

43

1

2.3%

-£31.00

-72.1%

I Wood

47

1

2.1%

-£21.00

-44.7%

T Mills

50

1

2%

-£45.67

-91.3%

J Hills

104

2

1.9%

-£80.00

-76.9%

P Haslam

55

1

1.8%

-£46.50

-84.5%

T Easterby

116

2

1.7%

-£84.50

-72.8%

N Callaghan

64

1

1.6%

-£60.75

-94.9%

N Littmoden

79

1

1.3%

-£73.50

-93%

W Jarvis

79

1

1.3%

-£74.00

-93.7%

T Barron

76

1

1.3%

-£68.00

-89.5%

M Tompkins

131

0

0%

-£131.00

-100%

J R Best

54

0

0%

-£54.00

-100%

M Easterby

53

0

0%

-£53.00

-100%

A Berry

51

0

0%

-£51.00

-100%

G Margarson

42

0

0%

-£42.00

-100%

J Toller

37

0

0%

-£37.00

-100%

M Blanshard

35

0

0%

-£35.00

-100%

B Millman

34

0

0%

-£34.00

-100%

J Johnson

33

0

0%

-£33.00

-100%

J Boyle

33

0

0%

-£33.00

-100%

J Spearing

32

0

0%

-£32.00

-100%

D Haydn Jones

30

0

0%

-£30.00

-100%

 

Only 9 trainers have recorded a strike rate of better than 1 win in 10. Is anyone thinking of backing a 2yo debutants from July onwards after looking at that table??!

 

From this rather negative point, well from a backer’s perspective anyway, I decided to see if a positive market position helped. I decided to restrict the debutants (July onwards) that started in the top three of the betting. Overall the strike rate rose to 17% and losses were restricted to 14% - not too bad in comparison. From here I broke the results again down by trainer – to qualify for the table I used 15 runs or more as a cut off point:

 

Trainer

Runs

Wins

Strike Rate

Profit

ROI

G Butler

26

7

26.9%

+£8.71

+33.5%

S Bin Suroor

167

42

25.2%

-£2.86

-1.7%

L Cumani

18

4

22.2%

-£3.38

-18.8%

K Ryan

33

7

21.2%

+£7.50

+22.7%

 P Chapple-Hyam

38

8

21.1%

-£7.84

-20.6%

H Candy

19

4

21.1%

-£1.50

-7.9%

Sir M Stoute

200

42

21%

+£23.28

+11.6%

P Cole

43

9

20.9%

+£8.71

+20.2%

E Dunlop

35

7

20%

-£3.25

-9.3%

J Gosden

131

26

19.9%

+£3.87

+3%

M Johnston

187

37

19.8%

+£6.46

+3.5%

J Dunlop

31

6

19.4%

-£6.43

-20.8%

M Bell

26

5

19.2%

-£8.80

-33.9%

B Meehan

43

8

18.6%

+£0.15

+0.4%

M Tregoning

38

7

18.4%

-£6.00

-15.8%

A O'Brien

17

3

17.7%

-£7.43

-43.7%

M Jarvis

69

12

17.4%

-£16.52

-23.9%

R Charlton

35

6

17.1%

-£13.08

-37.4%

H Cecil

47

8

17%

-£13.42

-28.6%

J Noseda

53

9

17%

-£23.46

-44.3%

J Fanshawe

30

5

16.7%

-£7.75

-25.8%

B Smart

24

4

16.7%

-£4.13

-17.2%

R Hannon

61

10

16.4%

+£1.25

+2.1%

Sir M Prescott

44

7

15.9%

-£12.75

-29%

M Channon

57

9

15.8%

-£8.13

-14.3%

B Hills

87

13

14.9%

-£25.13

-28.9%

R Beckett

23

3

13%

+£5.00

+21.7%

Mrs A Perrett

35

4

11.4%

-£1.00

-2.9%

E O'Neill

24

2

8.3%

-£14.00

-58.3%

J Osborne

15

1

6.7%

-£10.50

-70%

A Balding

17

1

5.9%

-£11.50

-67.7%

W Haggas

45

2

4.4%

-£35.67

-79.3%

T Barron

15

0

0%

-£15.00

-100%

 

It seems that fancied runners from stables such as Stoutes’ are worth close scrutiny. However, in general there does not seem a strong punting angle here for many trainers. For layers however, there looks to be a few trainers worth opposing even when their runners are in the top three in the betting. Willie Haggas with just 2 wins from 45 is one such trainer that on this evidence anyway is worth avoiding (or indeed laying). Others worth swerving seem to be runners from Prescott, Barry Hills, Noseda, Charlton, amongst others.

 

Now I decided to look at trainer performance with runners 4th or bigger in the betting. One would expect some very low strikes and that is what I found. I have restricted it to trainers with a strike rate of less than 4% from at least 50 runners:

 

Trainer

Runs

Wins

Strike Rate

Profit

ROI

J Dunlop

231

9

3.9%

-£101.50

-43.9%

A Balding

129

5

3.9%

-£48.00

-37.2%

R Hannon

265

10

3.8%

-£126.50

-47.7%

B Hills

269

10

3.7%

-£119.00

-44.2%

J Fanshawe

84

3

3.6%

-£50.00

-59.5%

J Osborne

115

4

3.5%

-£51.00

-44.4%

P Chapple-Hyam

90

3

3.3%

-£54.00

-60%

K R Burke

64

2

3.1%

-£21.00

-32.8%

L Cumani

99

3

3%

-£73.00

-73.7%

S Williams

66

2

3%

-£48.00

-72.7%

J Quinn

66

2

3%

-£2.00

-3%

C Brittain

107

3

2.8%

-£47.00

-43.9%

M Bell

123

3

2.4%

-£93.50

-76%

M Channon

214

5

2.3%

-£157.00

-73.4%

P Cole

86

2

2.3%

-£52.00

-60.5%

R Charlton

132

3

2.3%

-£70.00

-53%

W Haggas

133

3

2.3%

-£43.00

-32.3%

G Butler

90

2

2.2%

-£43.00

-47.8%

J Hills

100

2

2%

-£76.00

-76%

H Morrison

102

2

2%

-£80.00

-78.4%

S Kirk

103

2

1.9%

-£73.50

-71.4%

P Haslam

53

1

1.9%

-£44.50

-84%

Mrs A Perrett

168

3

1.8%

-£131.00

-78%

T Barron

61

1

1.6%

-£53.00

-86.9%

C Wall

63

1

1.6%

-£37.00

-58.7%

K Ryan

83

1

1.2%

-£70.00

-84.3%

Sir M Prescott

108

1

0.9%

-£87.00

-80.6%

T Easterby

108

1

0.9%

-£82.00

-75.9%

M Tompkins

126

0

0%

-£126.00

-100%

B Smart

91

0

0%

-£91.00

-100%

N Littmoden

75

0

0%

-£75.00

-100%

W Jarvis

72

0

0%

-£72.00

-100%

Mrs A Duffield

63

0

0%

-£63.00

-100%

N Callaghan

57

0

0%

-£57.00

-100%

M Easterby

53

0

0%

-£53.00

-100%

A Berry

51

0

0%

-£51.00

-100%

 

There are several high profile trainers in the list and clearly when their 2yo debutant is not fancied then essentially he/she should be avoided like the plague.

 

One trainer though worth further exploration with his 2yo debutants at this time of the year is Mark Johnston. Johnston’s overall strike rate is 14% and there are some positive angles worth noting:

  

Positive angle

Runs

Wins

Strike Rate

Profit

ROI

Distance 7f

167

28

16.8%

+£114.00

+68.3%

Course - York

23

6

26.1%

+£32.50

+141.3%

Jockey – G Fairley

59

11

18.6%

+£36.50

+61.9%

9 runners or less

133

29

21.8%

+£49.72

+37.4%

 

Perhaps the most interesting angle is the 9 runners or less figures. The reason I think Johnston’s debutants do well in smaller fields is down to the fact that his better runners tend to race right up with the pace. Indeed this brings me to an interesting “in running” angle. I have broken down Johnston’s debutants into those that led early, those that raced prominent early and those that were held up early. The figures are very interesting:

 

Positive angle

Runs

Wins

Strike Rate

Profit

ROI

Led

64

23

37.7%

+£91.10

+142.3%

Prominent

176

23

13.1%

+£33.62

+19.1%

Held up

173

12

7.1%

-£70.75

-40.9%

 

Now, of course, without the aid of looking into the future, we could not have predicted which horses would have run with which running style. However, with profits on that scale at SP for horses that led, with the aid of a bigger initial price on Betfair, it should be possible to back any Johnston front runner within the first 100 yards of the race “in running” and still make a tidy profit.

 

At least we may have found some profitable from this research from a backer’s perspective!

 

 

2yo maidens March-June – ALL debutants

Runs

Wins

Strike Rate

Profit

ROI

6368

495

7.8%

-£1655.26

-26%

 

2yo maidens July onwards – ALL debutants

 

Runs

Wins

Strike Rate

Profit

ROI

12411

682

5.5%

-£4980.12

-40.1%

 

As we can, 2yo maiden debutants have a much poorer record from July onwards. At first glance this may not make sense as you often hear the racing experts go on about the better 2 year olds being introduced later in the year. Surely better 2yos will do better on debut when looking at the bigger picture? However, what one needs to appreciate is that horses making their debut later in the season tend to race against horses that have run before – or at least the majority have run before. Experience counts for a lot in many 2yo maiden races. This happens less earlier in the year when a higher proportion of their ‘competitors’ are also making their debut. Thus, this helps to explain the difference in the strike rates and the returns.

 

It is interesting that certain trainers target different times of the year. Let us look at Richard Hannon for example:

 

Months

Runs

Wins

Strike Rate

Profit

ROI

March - June

376

53

14.1%

-£54.50

-14.5%

July onwards

327

20

6.1%

-£126.25

-38.6%

 

Clearly Hannon focuses on the sharper, early developing 2yo. His record from July onwards is very poor in comparison to his early season record. Indeed, take July out of the equation and he saddled just 8 winners from 184 runners (SR 4.3%) for a loss of £82.75 (ROI -45%) from August onwards.

 

Another trainer worth discussing briefly is Sir Michael Stoute. He has saddled just 25 debutants from March to June in the 7 seasons (just 2 winners). From July onwards he has saddled 355 debutants (55 winners). Stoute tends to focus on middle to longer distances with his 3yos so it makes sense that most of his 2yo debutants are the later developing types that are likely to tackle longer distances the following year.

 

Let us now focus back on all trainers from July onwards with their 2yo maiden debutants. I have included trainers who have saddled 30 or more debutants. Overall the results make fairly sorry reading:

 

Trainer

Runs

Wins

Strike Rate

Profit

ROI

S Bin-Suroor

213

43

20.2%

-£37.83

-17.8%

Sir M Stoute

355

54

15.2%

+£10.29

+2.9%

H Cecil

98

14

14.3%

-£9.42

-9.6%

A O'Brien

21

3

14.3%

-£11.43

-54.4%

M Johnston

413

58

14%

+£53.97

+13.1%

H Candy

73

9

12.3%

+£22.50

+30.8%

J Noseda

126

15

11.9%

+£23.54

+18.7%

J Gosden

308

34

11%

-£39.63

-12.9%

 D Simcock

48

5

10.4%

+£5.75

+12%

M Tregoning

137

12

8.8%

-£35.00

-25.5%

W Swinburn

80

7

8.8%

-£5.00

-6.3%

M Jarvis

218

19

8.7%

-£73.51

-33.7%

P Cole

129

11

8.5%

-£43.29

-33.6%

R Beckett

118

10

8.5%

+£18.50

+15.7%

M Wallace

59

5

8.5%

+£5.50

9.3%

B Meehan

251

21

8.4%

-£0.34

-0.1%

P Makin

49

4

8.2%

-£16.25

-33.2%

P Chapple-Hyam

127

10

7.9%

-£62.67

-49.3%

G Butler

116

9

7.8%

-£34.29

-29.6%

W Muir

79

6

7.6%

+£59.00

+74.7%

M Dods

40

3

7.5%

+£169.00

+422.5%

D Elsworth

95

7

7.4%

+£3.33

+3.5%

K Ryan

112

8

7.1%

-£58.50

-52.2%

J Fanshawe

114

8

7%

-£57.75

-50.7%

E O'Neill

72

5

6.9%

-£22.00

-30.6%

E Dunlop

255

17

6.7%

-£109.25

-42.8%

E Vaughan

45

3

6.7%

-£23.25

-51.7%

R Hollinshead

45

3

6.7%

+£49.00

+108.9%

B Hills

357

23

6.4%

-£145.12

-40.6%

L Cumani

110

7

6.4%

-£69.38

-63.1%

M Quinlan

48

3

6.3%

+£5.50

+11.5%

R Hannon

327

20

6.1%

-£126.25

-38.6%

S Kirk

117

7

6%

-£57.50

-49.1%

A Jarvis

50

3

6%

-£32.25

-64.5%

J Eustace

50

3

6%

-£12.00

-24.0%

M Botti

34

2

5.9%

-£6.00

-17.6%

J Dunlop

262

15

5.7%

-£107.93

-41.2%

R Johnson Houghton

35

2

5.7%

+£42.00

+120.0%

R Charlton

167

9

5.4%

-£83.08

-49.7%

M Bell

149

8

5.4%

-£102.30

-68.7%

C Cox

74

4

5.4%

-£33.00

-44.6%

Sir M Prescott

152

8

5.3%

-£99.75

-65.6%

M Channon

273

14

5.1%

-£167.12

-61.2%

R Guest

61

3

4.9%

+£12.50

+20.5%

R Fahey

109

5

4.6%

-£2.75

-2.5%

J Given

132

6

4.5%

-£16.00

-12.1%

A Balding

146

6

4.1%

-£59.50

-40.8%

J Osborne

130

5

3.8%

-£61.50

-47.3%

G L Moore

54

2

3.7%

+£18.50

+34.3%

B Smart

115

4

3.5%

-£95.12

-82.7%

Mrs A Perrett

204

7

3.4%

-£133.00

-65.2%

P D'arcy

30

1

3.3%

-£26.75

-89.2%

J Weymes

31

1

3.2%

+£3.00

+9.7%

C Wall

65

2

3.1%

-£33.00

-50.8%

S Williams

67

2

3%

-£49.00

-73.1%

J Quinn

68

2

2.9%

-£4.00

-5.9%

H Dunlop

34

1

2.9%

-£25.00

-73.5%

W Haggas

178

5

2.8%

-£78.67

-44.2%

H Morrison

113

3

2.7%

-£86.50

-76.5%

C Brittain

110

3

2.7%

-£50.00

-45.5%

K R Burke

74

2

2.7%

-£31.00

-41.9%

A King

37

1

2.7%

+£30.00

+81.1%

G Swinbank

39

1

2.6%

-£26.00

-66.7%

J Moore

40

1

2.5%

-£6.00

-15%

P Blockley

42

1

2.4%

-£8.00

-19%

B Palling

43

1

2.3%

-£31.00

-72.1%

I Wood

47

1

2.1%

-£21.00

-44.7%

T Mills

50

1

2%

-£45.67

-91.3%

J Hills

104

2

1.9%

-£80.00

-76.9%

P Haslam

55

1

1.8%

-£46.50

-84.5%

T Easterby

116

2

1.7%

-£84.50

-72.8%

N Callaghan

64

1

1.6%

-£60.75

-94.9%

N Littmoden

79

1

1.3%

-£73.50

-93%

W Jarvis

79

1

1.3%

-£74.00

-93.7%

T Barron

76

1

1.3%

-£68.00

-89.5%

M Tompkins

131

0

0%

-£131.00

-100%

J R Best

54

0

0%

-£54.00

-100%

M Easterby

53

0

0%

-£53.00

-100%

A Berry

51

0

0%

-£51.00

-100%

G Margarson

42

0

0%

-£42.00

-100%

J Toller

37

0

0%

-£37.00

-100%

M Blanshard

35

0

0%

-£35.00

-100%

B Millman

34

0

0%

-£34.00

-100%

J Johnson

33

0

0%

-£33.00

-100%

J Boyle

33

0

0%

-£33.00

-100%

J Spearing

32

0

0%

-£32.00

-100%

D Haydn Jones

30

0

0%

-£30.00

-100%

 

Only 9 trainers have recorded a strike rate of better than 1 win in 10. Is anyone thinking of backing a 2yo debutants from July onwards after looking at that table??!

 

From this rather negative point, well from a backer’s perspective anyway, I decided to see if a positive market position helped. I decided to restrict the debutants (July onwards) that started in the top three of the betting. Overall the strike rate rose to 17% and losses were restricted to 14% - not too bad in comparison. From here I broke the results again down by trainer – to qualify for the table I used 15 runs or more as a cut off point:

 

Trainer

Runs

Wins

Strike Rate

Profit

ROI

G Butler

26

7

26.9%

+£8.71

+33.5%

S Bin Suroor

167

42

25.2%

-£2.86

-1.7%

L Cumani

18

4

22.2%

-£3.38

-18.8%

K Ryan

33

7

21.2%

+£7.50

+22.7%

 P Chapple-Hyam

38

8

21.1%

-£7.84

-20.6%

H Candy

19

4

21.1%

-£1.50

-7.9%

Sir M Stoute

200

42

21%

+£23.28

+11.6%

P Cole

43

9

20.9%

+£8.71

+20.2%

E Dunlop

35

7

20%

-£3.25

-9.3%

J Gosden

131

26

19.9%

+£3.87

+3%

M Johnston

187

37

19.8%

+£6.46

+3.5%

J Dunlop

31

6

19.4%

-£6.43

-20.8%

M Bell

26

5

19.2%

-£8.80

-33.9%

B Meehan

43

8

18.6%

+£0.15

+0.4%

M Tregoning

38

7

18.4%

-£6.00

-15.8%

A O'Brien

17

3

17.7%

-£7.43

-43.7%

M Jarvis

69

12

17.4%

-£16.52

-23.9%

R Charlton

35

6

17.1%

-£13.08

-37.4%

H Cecil

47

8

17%

-£13.42

-28.6%

J Noseda

53

9

17%

-£23.46

-44.3%

J Fanshawe

30

5

16.7%

-£7.75

-25.8%

B Smart

24

4

16.7%

-£4.13

-17.2%

R Hannon

61

10

16.4%

+£1.25

+2.1%

Sir M Prescott

44

7

15.9%

-£12.75

-29%

M Channon

57

9

15.8%

-£8.13

-14.3%

B Hills

87

13

14.9%

-£25.13

-28.9%

R Beckett

23

3

13%

+£5.00

+21.7%

Mrs A Perrett

35

4

11.4%

-£1.00

-2.9%

E O'Neill

24

2

8.3%

-£14.00

-58.3%

J Osborne

15

1

6.7%

-£10.50

-70%

A Balding

17

1

5.9%

-£11.50

-67.7%

W Haggas

45

2

4.4%

-£35.67

-79.3%

T Barron

15

0

0%

-£15.00

-100%

 

It seems that fancied runners from stables such as Stoutes’ are worth close scrutiny. However, in general there does not seem a strong punting angle here for many trainers. For layers however, there looks to be a few trainers worth opposing even when their runners are in the top three in the betting. Willie Haggas with just 2 wins from 45 is one such trainer that on this evidence anyway is worth avoiding (or indeed laying). Others worth swerving seem to be runners from Prescott, Barry Hills, Noseda, Charlton, amongst others.

 

Now I decided to look at trainer performance with runners 4th or bigger in the betting. One would expect some very low strikes and that is what I found. I have restricted it to trainers with a strike rate of less than 4% from at least 50 runners:

 

Trainer

Runs

Wins

Strike Rate

Profit

ROI

J Dunlop

231

9

3.9%

-£101.50

-43.9%

A Balding

129

5

3.9%

-£48.00

-37.2%

R Hannon

265

10

3.8%

-£126.50

-47.7%

B Hills

269

10

3.7%

-£119.00

-44.2%

J Fanshawe

84

3

3.6%

-£50.00

-59.5%

J Osborne

115

4

3.5%

-£51.00

-44.4%

P Chapple-Hyam

90

3

3.3%

-£54.00

-60%

K R Burke

64

2

3.1%

-£21.00

-32.8%

L Cumani

99

3

3%

-£73.00

-73.7%

S Williams

66

2

3%

-£48.00

-72.7%

J Quinn

66

2

3%

-£2.00

-3%

C Brittain

107

3

2.8%

-£47.00

-43.9%

M Bell

123

3

2.4%

-£93.50

-76%

M Channon

214

5

2.3%

-£157.00

-73.4%

P Cole

86

2

2.3%

-£52.00

-60.5%

R Charlton

132

3

2.3%

-£70.00

-53%

W Haggas

133

3

2.3%

-£43.00

-32.3%

G Butler

90

2

2.2%

-£43.00

-47.8%

J Hills

100

2

2%

-£76.00

-76%

H Morrison

102

2

2%

-£80.00

-78.4%

S Kirk

103

2

1.9%

-£73.50

-71.4%

P Haslam

53

1

1.9%

-£44.50

-84%

Mrs A Perrett

168

3

1.8%

-£131.00

-78%

T Barron

61

1

1.6%

-£53.00

-86.9%

C Wall

63

1

1.6%

-£37.00

-58.7%

K Ryan

83

1

1.2%

-£70.00

-84.3%

Sir M Prescott

108

1

0.9%

-£87.00

-80.6%

T Easterby

108

1

0.9%

-£82.00

-75.9%

M Tompkins

126

0

0%

-£126.00

-100%

B Smart

91

0

0%

-£91.00

-100%

N Littmoden

75

0

0%

-£75.00

-100%

W Jarvis

72

0

0%

-£72.00

-100%

Mrs A Duffield

63

0

0%

-£63.00

-100%

N Callaghan

57

0

0%

-£57.00

-100%

M Easterby

53

0

0%

-£53.00

-100%

A Berry

51

0

0%

-£51.00

-100%

 

There are several high profile trainers in the list and clearly when their 2yo debutant is not fancied then essentially he/she should be avoided like the plague.

 

One trainer though worth further exploration with his 2yo debutants at this time of the year is Mark Johnston. Johnston’s overall strike rate is 14% and there are some positive angles worth noting:

  

Positive angle

Runs

Wins

Strike Rate

Profit

ROI

Distance 7f

167

28

16.8%

+£114.00

+68.3%

Course - York

23

6

26.1%

+£32.50

+141.3%

Jockey – G Fairley

59

11

18.6%

+£36.50

+61.9%

9 runners or less

133

29

21.8%

+£49.72

+37.4%

 

Perhaps the most interesting angle is the 9 runners or less figures. The reason I think Johnston’s debutants do well in smaller fields is down to the fact that his better runners tend to race right up with the pace. Indeed this brings me to an interesting “in running” angle. I have broken down Johnston’s debutants into those that led early, those that raced prominent early and those that were held up early. The figures are very interesting:

 

Positive angle

Runs

Wins

Strike Rate

Profit

ROI

Led

64

23

37.7%

+£91.10

+142.3%

Prominent

176

23

13.1%

+£33.62

+19.1%

Held up

173

12

7.1%

-£70.75

-40.9%

 

Now, of course, without the aid of looking into the future, we could not have predicted which horses would have run with which running style. However, with profits on that scale at SP for horses that led, with the aid of a bigger initial price on Betfair, it should be possible to back any Johnston front runner within the first 100 yards of the race “in running” and still make a tidy profit.

 

At least we may have found some profitable from this research from a backer’s perspective!








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