2yo debutants in maidens July onwards by David Renham

In this article I will be looking at the performance of 2yo debutants in 2yo maidens from July onwards. The data has been taken from the last 7 seasons.

Firstly it is interesting to compare the performance of 2yo maiden debutants from March to June with those from July onwards:

2yo maidens March-June – ALL debutants

2yo maidens July onwards – ALL debutants

As we can, 2yo maiden debutants have a much poorer record from July onwards. At first glance this may not make sense as you often hear the racing experts go on about the better 2 year olds being introduced later in the year. Surely better 2yos will do better on debut when looking at the bigger picture? However, what one needs to appreciate is that horses making their debut later in the season tend to race against horses that have run before – or at least the majority have run before. Experience counts for a lot in many 2yo maiden races. This happens less earlier in the year when a higher proportion of their ‘competitors’ are also making their debut. Thus, this helps to explain the difference in the strike rates and the returns.

In the rest of this article Dave goes on to investigate how different trainers fare, he also includes some research into the effect of market position ( 1st, 2nd , 3rd in the betting etc )

He highlights some very profitable approaches.