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Terry's Lays are a great example
of what we would like PunterProfits to be all about.
The Origin
Several years ago Dave carried out extensive research into
horses marked as race favourites in the Racing Post.
The result of this research was an article detailing the
sort of favourites to back and the sort of favourites to avoid.
Terry a long time member here took Dave's research and from
it created his own personal set of rules
for identifying Racing post favourites to be laid on the betting
exchanges.
( Being able to fast track your own personal betting ideas
using the
kick start of our research articles and reports is a big benefit
of PunterProfits membership )
Qualifiers Terry posted up on the full member
message boards here.
Unfortunately due to ill health Terry had to step down from
posting.
Our own Dave Renahm has now taken over as official daily
checker.
Selections get posted on the forums here and also go out
in a daily email to full members.
Long Term Tested
I am sure you have seen marketing gumph describing something
as "new" or "the latest thing".
Put on your cynics cap and you can read that as "not
proven long" or "not properly tested".
Terry's lays is the opposite. It has been running here since
before betfair even invented BSP.
We used to record results using odds at a percentage above
Starting Price.
Below however you will see just the more recent results since
2008 the point at which Betfair introduced BSP.
Profit and loss data assumes 5% exchange commission so if
you operate on a lower rate your profits would have been better.
Success strike rate is about 85%. ie 85 out of 100 lays will
win you money.
Below you can see a chart of profits over time.
The With Price Band line assumes a maximum acceptable BSP
of 11.0 exchange style or 10/1 traditional odds.
NB we would recommend max bsp odds be used as BSP is a little
like a tote pool bet in as much as one never
knows the final odds till after the off. It is a protectionist
measure against a rouge high odds winner being layed.
Chart last updated 20th Dec 2011
A microsoft excel spreadsheet which
is updated regularly is available for download at
http://www.punterprofits.com/download/terrys-lays-analysis.xls
The spreadsheet permits you to further analyse
yourself the effect of a better commission rate, use of maximum
acceptable price bands and also includes reports and charts
using various staking plans.
If you are interested in older data from before
the time of Betfair's introduction of BSP just drop us an
email and we can send you the old spreadsheet. If interested
in a quick summary of old time..it shows profitability roughly
in lines with the above more recent period.
How To Access Future Terry's Lays Selections
Each day we process the days race cards for
system qualifiers.
Full members receive any Terry's Lays qualifiers
in an email around noon each day.
Terry's Lays are just one small thing that comes
with your PunterProfits full membership
Joining our club is a simple process.
1 - Register
a free Account ( no need to do this bit again if you have
already done so)
( Need a password reminder go to Forgot
Password )
2 - Log
into the site
3 - Note the prominent "upgrade" option
visible on log in.
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